Tonight is a major test for us all

The police expect more trouble tonight, and it could be a big showdown. They cannot afford to lose – not after they, the Government, the mayor and everyone else have made such a song and dance about their new robust approach.

This largely boils down to numbers. The police need the rioters and TV viewers to see more officers than rioters. In theory that shouldn’t be difficult – I haven’t seen more than 16,000 violent youths on my screens. In practice it could be much harder.

The big advantage the rioters have is mobility and the size of London. Whereas the riots have largely been in areas close to deprivation, until now, there is no theoretical reason why they shouldn’t go to more affluent areas, or middle class suburbs. Anywhere from Putney to Hampstead is relatively easy to hit and get out of even if you don’t know your way around. It depends how determined the rioters are.

The police will know they cannot afford more images of them seeming to stand around (even if, in fact, they are planning their tactics and charges) so we can expect them to move a little quicker. With officers from 26 forces outside the capital they will not all know their way around so their ability to react as quickly as the rioters could be hampered.

The fundamental issues around these riots will take a long time to unravel. Tonight we already seem way beyond the original causes and the shooting of a suspect by police. But already our cups runneth over with guff about the whys, whos and what fors. Let us take a small reality check about some of the easy answers being offered up so far.

1. “The rioters are mindless”

There is nothing mindless about coordinated attacks on areas away from the police, avoiding residential targets, and going for commercial premises. People in some of the areas hit have described seeing older men telling younger people what to do. The undoubted criminality in what is happening requires some street knowledge.

2. “It’s like a warzone/the middle east/apocalypse”

No, it isn’t. It is terrifying to sit in your home with gangs of young men outside, ripping up your front yard, hurling missiles, setting fire to cars, burning buildings. Lives are being put at risk – and there is a grave danger somebody is about to be killed. But this is not like a warzone, or an intifada or a biblical destruction of the world. We must keep our sense of perspective.

3. “The police should crack down”

Just remember it was tough policing that started this whole episode – officers shooting dead a man they believed was an imminent threat. Remember too how furious people get at police using kettling at demonstrations, charging with horses, wielding their batons and hurting people as they did at the G20 protests. The police are under pressure to use reasonable force – what that is changes according to public mood, it seems.

Tonight is a big test for all sides. Will the rioters take fright? Will decent people go out to defend their homes? Will the police lose control again or crack down? The government cannot afford for this to go on. At the moment the opposition is being restrained, and aiming its fury at the rioters. But you can be sure there will be a political reckoning on how the government handled this – and the idea that people no longer feel safe is a potent political argument. Who is the party of law and order is not clear right now.

Follow @krishgm on Twitter.