True Grits: can the south deliver for Romney?

There are 90 delegates at stake: but much more than that for the three top contenders in the Republican presidential race, whose future more or less hangs on the outcome. The latest poll shows a razor-thin margin between them. This, in itself, is a big surprise, not least to Mitt Romney, who wasn’t given much chance of winning deeply conservative, blue collar states like Mississippi and Alabama. But if he could pull off one, or even two victories tonight, it might very well seal his nomination bid, once and for all.

So what’s really going on, down in Dixie? According to Dean Debnam, president of the polling organisation PPP, which shows all three are more or less tied, “it’s plausible that any of the candidates could finish between first and third in both Alabama and Mississippi.” In other words – we’ll just have to take that old-fashioned approach of actually waiting for people to vote. For real.

It’s just a matter of time before this is a two-man race. Alice Stewart, Santorum spokeswoman

Newt Gingrich has always pinned his biggest hopes on the South. Alabama, right next to his home state of Georgia, where his opponents never had a prayer, could offer his best chance of carrying on in the race. He needs a win, any win, to keep his hopes alive: last week he appeared to be finished, but he’s been written off more times than a toxic subprime housing loan – and bounced back every time. On Monday night he was whooping up the crowds at a presidential forum in Birmingham, proclaiming his religious credentials: “It’s fine to defile Christianity? That’s how sick the system is!”, and predicting a big win.

Where’s the momentum?

By contrast, Rick Santorum struggled to get the same crowd to crack a smile. He must have been hoping that a boost from Saturday’s caucus win in Kansas would hurtle him into a commanding lead. But although he was widely expected to mop up the large evangelical vote in tonight’s southern face off, he’s been the one trailing in third place. it’s fair to say that Santorum badly needs a victory, not just to stay viable, but to put more pressure on Gingrich to bow out. “It’s just a matter of time before this is a two man race”, his spokeswoman Alice Stewart told The Hill. The question is, will that second man be Rick?

Which leaves us with Mitt Romney, born again Southerner, grit-lover and true conservative. So far, although he’s unquestionably the front runner, his support has been mainly drawn from the wealthier, older, whiter end of the spectrum. The only southern state he’s won so far is Florida, which might as well be in the North East, for its demographic mix. But suddenly, here he is, with a chance of scooping two of the most dyed in the wool conservative states in the Union.

I’m learning to say y’all. I like grits. Mitt Romney

That’s Mississippi, where some 29 percent of Republican supporters still don’t believe interracial marriage should be legal – and more than half believe Obama is a Muslim. 45% of Republicans in Alabama thought the same – while 41% weren’t sure what religion he was. But Romney’s been working hard to persuade them that he’s just a regular guy. At one stop last week, he claimed he was turning into an “unofficial Southerner… I’m learning to say y’all, I like grits…” At another stop he claimed to be a big catfish time, although he told barbecue loving voters in South Carolina the other month that he “wasn’t a catfish fan, or not a fish man so much.”

Friends in high places

He’s won the backing of the political elite in both states – endorsements that really matter in places where politics is dominated by a tight-knit group. And, of course, he’s massively outspent both his rivals, as this chart from Buzzfeed clearly reveals. Although as ever, Mitt has proved unable to avoid putting his expensively shod foot in his mouth, once again appearing to flaunt his wealthy acquaintances, who just happen to own major-league football teams: “I’ve got a lot of good friends – the owner of the Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets – both owners are friends of mine”. Let’s hope they like grits too.

Romney’s strongest suit is his perceived electability: arguing that he’s the one who’s been polling best against President Obama. His campaign team have been arguing that a long, drawn out contest, where Santorum, and possibly Gingrich too, carry on the fight all the way to the convention, would do untold damage to the Republicans’ chances in the fall. “Can you imagine anything that would be a bigger gift to Barack Obama than us not having a nominee until the end of August? That is just not going to happen.” he told CNBC.

The long game

Except that’s basically Santorum’s strategy, in one: and Newt’s too, if he survives the night. Team Santorum released a memo this week headlined the “Santorum path to delegate victory” which sets out to deny Mitt Romney an outright majority, by winning just enough delegates to force it to the convention. “They are not going to nominate a moderate Massachussetts governor who has been outspending his opponent 10 to 1, and can’t win the election outright”, he said. So whatever happens in Mississippi and Alabama tonight, and it could well be very close, all three contenders are already looking towards the next prize.

Santorum’s watching the results tonight in Louisiana, home of the next contest on March 24th. And Romney’s already been buying up advertising time in Illinois. At least Alabama’s leaders are happy, though, with their unusually pivotal role: just listen to state GOP leader Bill Armistead. “People are really pumped up. We are, for once, going to be relevant to a presidential nominating process.” Something to cheer about then, whatever tonight’s result.

Felicity Spector writes about US politics for Channel 4 News