‘Trump is once again setting up a scene for violence’, says former Obama administration advisor

We’re joined by Peter Loge, who was a senior advisor in the Obama administration and is now a professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University.

Matt Frei: We’re always told in America to follow the money. The money seems to be pouring in for Kamala Harris to the tune of $1 billion since she was announced, and Trump has got $330 million. So how come they are neck and neck in the polls?

Peter Loge: I think because the voters of America are split. A lot of people know Donald Trump. They know him well, they’ve got strong opinions and many of those opinions are in favour of him. In many ways, Vice President Harris and certainly Governor Walz are still introducing themselves to the American people. A lot of that money is ‘come meet me’ money that the Harris-Walz campaign is spending.

Matt Frei: I wonder if one of the big conundrums that Kamala Harris faces is that she’s both trying to be an agent of change, she’s a woman of colour, they’ve never had a president like that before. But she’s also part of the incumbent team and that is the circle that she cannot square.

Peter Loge: That is absolutely a challenge for Harris and for Walz. It’s also a challenge for Trump, right? He’s already been president once. You have an incumbent president, who skipped a term, running against an incumbent vice president, both trying to run as outsiders who are new to Washington. It is an odd, odd situation.

Matt Frei: What about those Latino voters that were featured in Siobhan’s piece? If you look at the elections, ever since the turn of the century, they started off as Democrats, they were firmly in the Democrat camp. And with every election, they’re moving towards the Republicans and that is a challenge for Kamala Harris. Why do you think that is?

Peter Loge: I think there are a couple of reasons. The first thing to note is Latin Americans come from a wide range of countries across the south of America. Central America, Mexico, Latin America. There’s something like 665 million people who live in Latin America, which isn’t that far away from how many people live in Europe. To say there’s a ‘Latin American vote’ is like saying that people from France, Germany and Spain are the same and they’re obviously not. The second thing to note is that Latin American voters, like most voters in America, care a lot about the price of gas and groceries. They’re worried about inflation. They’re worried about crime. They’re worried about health care costs. They’re worried about the same things the rest of us are. And even in all of that, Harris is still winning the Latino vote close to 2 to 1. So her support is down a smidge from Biden four years ago, according to current polling. But she’s still really outpacing Trump there.

Matt Frei: But they’re also, socially, quite conservative, aren’t they? Many of them.

Peter Loge: Many, yeah. Again, to say ‘they’ across Latin America is like saying ‘they’ across Europeans. But yeah, a lot of Latin Americans come from Catholic countries that are strongly socially conservative. Many are pro law and order. And many live in neighbourhoods that are ravaged by crime. People who live in areas ravaged by crime tend to support law enforcement. They’re all looking for jobs and they’ve all got to buy gas and groceries just like the rest of us.

Matt Frei: And there’s so many people who are worried about the election results, whoever wins, because it might be contested. Do you share those fears?

Peter Loge: Absolutely. There are already lawsuits going on now. They anticipate many more lawsuits. I fully expect Donald Trump to declare victory on election night, regardless of what the results say and whether or not all the votes have been counted. And by that point, all the votes most certainly won’t have been counted. And again, regardless of what election officials say, one can imagine, Donald Trump will sue. The suits will likely fail, as they have in the past. But when the voting stops, the litigation begins.

Matt Frei: And could there be trouble on the streets?

Peter Loge: I imagine there might be, right? Donald Trump is once again setting up a scene for violence. He’s already saying the election is rigged. Trump never admits defeat. And if he loses, he’s already told people it’s because it’s rigged and we have to seize the country. He’s really seeding a really unpleasant and dangerous environment.