Trump’s re-election is a ‘heavy defeat for the climate agenda’, says former UN climate adviser

We spoke to former UN senior climate adviser Tom Rivett-Carnac. I asked him first off about the British presence, renewed vigour on climate and our NDC, our climate plan.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: Well, I think it’s incredibly significant to have a G7 country that’s here making a nationally determined commitment, which will happen in the course of the coming week. That is truly on the more ambitious end of the spectrum. That sends a signal, in an uncertain political environment, that developed countries need to lead. They need to come forward with the ambition that gets us back on track in Belém.

Alex Thomson: Oh but say some, ‘Donald Trump is going to come in. That’s going to wreck everything’. Is that really realistic or is it actually about so much more than one individual.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: Well, there’s no point in denying that this is anything other than a heavy defeat for the climate agenda. It’s clear that he is a climate denier, that the US is not going to be participating in a meaningful way in international forums, including the climate forums. That said, there’s clear evidence that the US can continue to decarbonise under Donald Trump. These solutions are now economically beneficial and we’ll continue to see them deployed. But we’re going to have to wait and see how that manifests on the international stage. The US is incredibly important, but the world is going to have to get used to getting by without them.

Alex Thomson: Now, a deal, frankly, for the rich countries to clear up the mess that we’ve caused to poor countries on climate. Trillions of dollars talked about being needed every year.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: So I think when we talk about finance, there’s lots of different pools of money that we’re talking about. The vast majority will be invested by commercial enterprises on a profitable basis to actually invest in the solutions that will solve this problem. What is also being discussed here is the smaller slice of money, that will be grants or loans provided by developed countries to developing countries. That is a difficult negotiation. As you say, budgets are tight. Developed countries are not looking for more things to spend money on. However, they do realise that we need to solve this problem and part of the pathway is meaningful finance deals. So it’s not going to be an easy negotiation. But hopefully within two weeks we’ll have a path forward.

Alex Thomson: And then finally, a bit of optimism. It is already happening. You mentioned business, investment opportunities, jobs, incentivising, that is what COP’s about and it’s happening. Look at the EU fall in emissions in 2023.

Tom Rivett-Carnac: Yes, so look at where we are now compared to ten years ago when we signed the Paris Agreement. Right. In those days we said, ‘one day the solutions to climate will be more economically beneficial than the incumbents’. Now that’s true. Now we’re seeing exponential deployment of solar, of wind, of batteries. This is a completely different world we’re in. And people who want to make money, frankly, that’s something we should applaud, are now in on the game. That is not going to stop. That needs to be accelerated. But we’re in with a really good chance to deal with this issue, based on the underlying economics.