8 Jun 2010

Turkey's Gaza strategy is designed to boost its influence

Lindsey Hilsum blogs on Turkey’s strategy towards Israel and Hamas following last week’s killing of nine activists during the storming of an aid flotilla.

The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan has been very public in his anger against the Israelis for the killing of nine Turkish activists on board the Mavi Marmara. But this isn’t an uncontrolled outburst of emotion – it’s part of a new Turkish strategy to reposition itself as an important power in the Middle East.

In recent years, Iran has asserted itself as the champion of the Palestinians. Arab governments are weak in their support, mainly because they do not like Hamas which has the same Islamist agenda as many Arab countries’ internal opposition.

Turkey, as an ally of Israel, was scarcely relevant. But the AKE government in Ankara, which has its roots in political Islam – much as European Christian Democrat countries have their roots in Christianity – is forging a new role for itself.

Turkey wants to wrench the Palestinians away from the extremist course set out by the Islamic Republic, and to be part of a new peace process. It’s giving Hamas an alternative to allying with Iran.

Yesterday, Hamas quickly rejected the Iranian Revolutionary Guard offer to send warships to escort aid going to Gaza – they know that would lead to war.

For Hamas, Turkey is in some ways a more natural ally than Iran, being a Sunni rather than a Shi’a country. And Turkey has good relations with the US and Europe, so it can – at least in theory – act as a bridge.

In recent years, Israel has managed to recast the conflict with the Palestinians as a struggle between democracy and terrorism, good and evil. In fact, it’s what it’s always been – a dispute about land.

The US and Europe have tied themselves in knots by refusing to talk to Hamas on the grounds that they’re terrorists.

Turkey looks at it differently. They don’t see Hamas as an instrument of war against Israel, the way Iran does. They don’t see talking to Hamas as a concession to terrorists, the way Europe and the US do. They accept Hamas as a fact of life, and want to see if a deal can be done.

Israel will kick and scream, because they have been used to Turkey being their only Muslim ally, a bulwark against a hostile neighbourhood.

But many of Israel’s friends believe the Jewish state has backed itself into corner by continuing to build settlements and besieging Gaza instead of looking for a way out of continued strife.

The Quartet – comprising the EU, the USA, Russia and the UN – under the leadership of Tony Blair has neither managed to advance peace in the Middle East, nor do much to improve the lives of Palestinians.

Prime Minister Erdogan has proved his credentials to the Palestinians. He now has to convince the US administration that as a NATO member, an important link in the western alliance, and an erstwhile ally of Israel, Turkey can succeed where others have failed.