Uncertain times for France after government collapse

France has fallen back into political turmoil with the collapse of the government. It is a victory of sorts for the far-right and for the coalition of left parties all of which opposed the government under the premiership of former EU Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. But it will do nothing to resolve France’s problems.

The minority government collapsed after losing a confidence vote in the Assemblée nationale on Wednesday. Despite attempts to appease the far-right, Prime Minister Michel Barnier could not convince opposition parties to back his budget, designed to save €60 billion through tax rises and cuts to services.

Barnier went ahead anyway and used a clause in the constitution to force the budget through without a vote. But in doing so, he triggered votes of no confidence in his government from both the left wing New Popular Front (NPF) and from Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally.

The government has been under constant threat since it was formed just three months ago. It only survived this long with the help of votes from the far-right. But Le Pen – who had been waiting for a moment to pounce – this time refused to back a budget she branded “dangerous, unjust and punitive.”

Michel Barnier, the shortest serving Prime Minister in recent French history, is likely to stay on for now to lead a caretaker government whilst President Emmanual Macron decides what to do next.

The President could offer the PM job to the left-green New Popular Front, something he has so far refused to do. But without a majority, NPF too, would likely struggle to get votes through parliament.

The constitution forbids Macron from calling another election before next summer at the earliest. That means the President will have to again root around to try to find a consensus candidate.

Michel Barnier managed to build what at times seemed like impossible bridges between opponents during the Brexit negotiations, but failed to bring fractious French politics back together.

“The French will not forgive us for putting the interests of individuals before the future of the country”, he warned this week.

“I have the impression that there is a kind of ‘trumpisation’ of French politics”, Macron-supporting MP Sabine Thillaye said on French local radio.

“Arguments of reason, arguments of responsibility, are no longer taking place. We are faced with a permanent competition and it is very exhausting.”

That fatigue in centre-ground politics is dangerous for Macron. One poll this week suggested nearly two-thirds of those surveyed believe the President should resign alongside the government.

Barnier has tried to shield Macron from the turmoil, branding the President as “one of the guarantors of the stability of our country.”

But stability is not the image France is giving off right now.

Macron has been physically, if not politically, distant from the crisis. He is due back shortly from the Middle East. On Saturday he will welcome US President-elect Donald Trump to Paris to show off the newly restored Notre Dame cathedral.

The coup of getting Trump to visit France on his first foreign trip since his re-election was supposed to be a moment of glory for Macron. But the visit will instead underline to the incoming US president the perception that Europe is weak.

Because it is not just France.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz is facing a difficult national election in Germany early next year. Belgium has no government. Romania will vote this weekend in the second round of its presidential election with a far-right candidate unexpectedly in the running.

Back in France, the political crisis has broad implications. Barnier’s cuts were supposed to put the French economy back on a stronger footing and bring debt back within Eurozone limits.

“We’re really keeping a close eye on what is happening in France”, said the European Commission’s budget spokesperson, Balazs Ujvari, on Tuesday.

Without improvements to the state of French public finances, economists fear there could be a contagious effect on the value of the Euro and the wider European economy.

Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels on Monday to discuss the “euro area budgetary situation and prospects.”

Five years ago Notre Dame cathedral was gutted by fire. Macron said its remarkable restoration is a mark of “achieving the impossible together. This is France.”

He must be wondering whether he can do the same with French politics.