‘Unpredictable’ Trump presidency could be ‘difficult’ for America’s allies, says Emily Thornberry

We’re joined by Labour’s Emily Thornberry, who’s chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, and Conservative MP and former Security Minister Tom Tugendhat.

Matt Frei: The special relationship which we set so much pride by with America is going to be in a pretty awkward place, isn’t it? Keir Starmer, Donald Trump together at the White House?

Emily Thornberry: Our relationship with America will always be special. They’re our friends, they’re our relatives. You know, we’ve always been close to them. And whoever is leader of the United States, the American people are the same people. It’s the office that’s important and not so much the incumbent. So I think the relationship will still be special. Clearly, we have relationships with a number of countries. We are a country that does best when we work with allies, and so common values are an important part of that. So we may find ourselves in a period where we find it easier to work with some of our other allies than with Donald Trump. It really depends what it is he’s going to do.

Matt Frei: You heard Kemi Badenoch in parliament there, reminding MPs of what David Lammy, our foreign secretary, has said about Donald Trump in the past. You’re on record for having called him, and I quote, ‘a racist sexual predator’. And he has an elephantine memory, of course. So when you come across him, when you next meet him, how’s that going to go?

Emily Thornberry: Well, I’ve never met him. He seems to get on fine with his deputy, who I think said that he was concerned that he was the American Hitler. He seems to get on fine with Boris Johnson, who said that he didn’t want to walk the streets of New York in case he bumped into Donald Trump. These things are said.

Matt Frei: It’ll be interesting to see when you do finally meet him. Let’s talk about policy. First to you, Emily Thornberry. What are you most concerned about, is it the Middle East? Is it Ukraine?

Emily Thornberry: It’s difficult, isn’t it? Is it the Middle East? Is it Ukraine? Is it climate change? There are so many things that we’re concerned about. You don’t know with Donald Trump what it is that he’s going to do. You hear what he says and then you don’t know if he means it or not. There’s the question of 20 per cent tariffs on all imports. There’s the ‘I will never agree to any climate change agreements’. There’s the ‘I can fix Ukraine in 24 hours’, I think is what he said, which presumably means pushing the Ukrainians into surrender. I don’t know. And telling the Israelis that they need to just ‘get on with the job and get on with it quickly’. It’s very difficult to know exactly what any of this means. But the one thing that is clear is that it’s going to be unpredictable, and that is what’s difficult for allies to cope with.

Matt Frei: All right. Let’s talk to Tom Tugendhat. Tom, you’re a former soldier, you were security minister and you are passionate about support for Ukraine. So what would you say to the Americans if they decide to cut off that support, if they decide, frankly, as they might, to pull out of Nato?

Tom Tugendhat: On Sunday it’s Remembrance Sunday and I’m reminded of all those American service personnel I fought alongside in Iraq and Afghanistan. One of the things that always strikes me, is the depth of the relationship is much more than the incumbents of the office. It’s down to our security personnel. It’s down to our intelligence services and our armed forces. And so when I hear talk about the different challenges, whether it’s Nato or Ukraine or the Middle East, you’re absolutely right. These are important questions. But it was Biden who pulled out of Afghanistan, abandoning 20 years of effort and all those lives and all that money spent. And it was under the Biden administration that Putin invaded not just Donetsk and Luhansk and Crimea, but actually spread north. So these things are not quite as black and white as one might presume. And after all, it was under the Trump administration, the last Trump administration, the Abraham Accords were signed, which really did bring some element of peace to parts of the Middle East. Now, it’s very hard with Donald Trump to predict anything, but the truth is that can go up and down.

Matt Frei: But what pressure can we bring to bear, with our so-called special relationship on Donald Trump, to persuade him that maybe quitting Nato is a bad idea or that quitting Ukraine is a bad idea? We don’t have any leverage with him.

Tom Tugendhat: The leverage we have is the same as every other partner, which is to live up to our obligations and to demonstrate that we’re taking our share of the burden. That’s why increasing our defence spending, making sure that we’re retooling our industry to actually produce the ammunition and the equipment that we so liberally promised to the Ukrainians, with no ability to fulfil. That’s where we actually need to live up to our promises. Now, if we don’t live up to our promises and sadly many European countries don’t in Nato, is it really surprising that President Trump and not just President Trump, actually President Obama and other presidents before them have consistently said ‘Nato has to live up to its commitments’. This isn’t a one way deal. It’s hardly surprising that the American people choose somebody who’s going to represent their interests rather than choosing somebody who’s going to represent ours. So we need to live up to those commitments.