The Americans are in something of a catch-22 situation when it comes to commenting on the protests igniting in the Middle East, writes Lindsey Hilsum.
Hillary Clinton is walking a tightrope. On the one hand she describes the ruling family of Bahrain as “a friend and ally”. On the other, she has “deep concerns” about the way the security forces broke up the demonstration at the Pearl Square overnight.
The Gulf region – especially Bahrain’s neighbour Saudi Arabia – provides much of America’s oil, and ‘friendly’ governments are regarded as essential in what used to be called “the war of terror”.
“We’re in a quandary,” said a Washington official who used to work in the Gulf. “How do you be on the right side of history, be true to your values, and stand by your allies who need your support in an area that’s critical to US security?”
I guess you probably can’t, and that’s why the American response to the revolts sweeping the Middle East has been so equivocal.
Gulf governments see US support as essential because they fear a belligerent and potentially nuclear-armed Iran. That’s good for American (and British, and French) arms exports. But many Arab leaders resent what they see as US indulgence of Israel and have a growing population of young people who espouse an assertive, if not militant, form of Islam. The rulers have effectively played the Americans, especially after 9/11. Whenever the US officials murmur about democracy, then kings, princes and presidents raise the spectre of radical Islamism.
But ‘stability’ means stasis, and – if unable to bend – those regimes now may break.
In Bahrain, the protestors want King Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa to fire his uncle, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, who has been prime minister for 40 years.
Think about that. The US has been through 10 Presidents in those four decades. The King, who inherited the crown from his father in 2002, promised to bring in reforms, but change has been slow, and opposition leaders who were locked up before the October parliamentary elections, claim that they have been tortured in custody.
Gulf governments constantly promise reform. The Saudi government said in 1991 that “soon” women would be allowed to drive cars. They still can’t. When I went there five years back and asked when would women drive, I was told “soon”.
No wonder young people are frustrated. Unlike in Egypt, Gulf populations are not poor. Many people let off steam by visiting London or New York. But as suspicion of Arabs has grown in the US and Europe, it’s become more important to be able to live as they want at home. Their social frustration is now finding political expression.
In Bahrain, the protestors started with lesser demands – the resignation of the Prime Minister, an end to discrimination against Shi’as. But now they have been attacked by the police, so the revolution has its martyrs. The crowds are now chanting – as they did in Egypt and Tunisia – “The people demand the fall of the regime”.
And that’s a real problem for the Americans.