Vanishing kingdom? A historian’s take on the death of the UK

Professor Davies is the author of the critically-acclaimed Vanished Kingdoms, which traces the rise and inevitable decline of European nation-states, from forgotten kingdoms of the Dark Ages to the USSR.

The sudden collapse of once-mighty European empires, be they Polish-Lithuanian, Holy Roman or Soviet, is a humbling reminder for modern countries to be aware of their own mortality.

The historian first predicted the imminent collapse of the United Kingdom, in 1999, after looking at the health of the great institutions that created British identity, like the monarchy, the Westminster parliament, the British Empire and the Royal Navy.

Some 15 years on, what seemed like an overly pessimistic prediction of the death of the UK is approaching reality, as polls suggest the Scottish independence referendum on 18 September will be a close-run thing.

Other European countries are in danger of destruction too, as separatist movements continue to flourish across the continent.

The eventual fall of nations may be inevitable, but that does not mean British unionists can do nothing to prevent the break-up of the UK, according to Professor Davies.

He told us: “All political entities fall apart sooner or later. It’s just a question of when. The United Kingdom began to break up in 1922 when the Irish Free State was formed. English people have forgotten that.

The pillars of Britishness are all crumbling or have already crumbled, so the United Kingdom is living on borrowed time. My view is a bit fatalistic: what will happen will happen.”

All is not lost

But it does not have to happen this year, he stressed, blaming “lack of good sense in the Conservative party” and the rise of Euroscepticism led by “English nationalists who don’t have Scotland in their minds at all”.

“English nationalists are preparing the ground for the Scots to leave,” he said.

“If they start beating the drum to leave the European Union they are going to lose 10 Scottish votes for every one they pick up.”

Why the hell should this layabout in St James’s Palace take all our wealth?

He added: “If you are a die-hard British unionist, you shouldn’t think all is lost, but it all seems to be falling away by complacency, by not taking all the challenges seriously.

“Cameron seems to me unable or unaware of the dangers that are closing in on him. What we need is a British prime minister who is perhaps not English like Cameron, who makes a show of respecting the Scots and the Welsh and the Northern Irish.”

‘The real problem is England’

Above, all, he sees the disproportionate power of England in the United Kingdom as the biggest threat to the Union.

“The second world war was a great factor for integrating people. Since then, Britishness has declined and the separate identity of Wales and Scotland and above all England is being strengthened.

The real problem is England. Because England is so much bigger, richer and more influential than all the others, it creates resentment without trying.

“Look at Prince Charles and the Duchy of Cornwall. If you are Cornish you would think: why the hell should this layabout in St James’s Palace take all our wealth?”

Professor Davies is dismissive of some currents in modern European separatist movements, calling calls for Cornish independence “a long shot” and questioning the historical basis of some national narratives.

“The Catalans have the romantic idea that there used to be a Catalan state which was stolen away from them. All nationalist movements have to invent their history. It doesn’t matter if it is true or not. They have to produce a historical narrative.

“All separatist groups seize on any slight, real or imagined, contemporary or historical, that they can use to batter their perceived oppressor.”

The Scots, he notes, “have got a very good historical narrative”, and the country has a “firmer foundation” than many aspiring states in the existing institutions that have always been Scottish.

Venice’s pretensions to nationhood are “half-serious”, he thinks, saying: “Venice has a long history, a separate identity, but everywhere in Italy the local identity and the local institutions are very strong.

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if you found it happening somewhere else, Florence or Naples have strong local identities.”

Again, the break-up of Italy is not inevitable, he said. The separatist movements are partly a reflection of popular disgust at the antics of the Berlusconi regime.

And the flames of separatism could quickly die out across the continent if people’s confidence in the EU is shaken, Professor Davies thinks.

Without the EU I don’t think Scotland or the Catalans or the Flemings would be quite so keen.

“The European Union creates a favourable setting for small independent states to be created, because so long as they join the European Union, they are protected from their bigger neighbours.

“Without the EU I don’t think Scotland or the Catalans or the Flemings would be quite so keen. The health of the European Union is a precondition for the independence of these states.

“If the EU was to collapse – which is not impossible – I think you would find that these separatist movements would start to think twice, to think: the time for us is not quite right.

“Over the last 20 years the time looked increasingly right for them.”