‘War is imminent’ against Hezbollah, says former Israeli general

We spoke to Brigadier General Amir Avivi, who previously served in the Israel Defense Forces and founded the Israel Defense and Security Forum, and began by asking if Israel was responsible for the pager explosions in Lebanon.

Amir Avivi: Well, Israel is probably not going to take responsibility, but the level of sophistication definitely can be regarded to Israel. More than 3,000 Hezbollah commanders have been targeted when a message was sent to their people. And while they were looking at the message, the beeper exploded. I think it’s an unprecedented attack. Very accurate.

Matt Frei: One of the dead was a child, a child was killed as well. So that target didn’t go so well, unless you intended to kill a child.

Amir Avivi: Well, 3,000 terrorists were targeted. I think that 3,000 to one is also unprecedented.

Matt Frei: So, you’re basically saying that Israel was responsible for this, because no one else could mount such an operation.

Amir Avivi: They’re not taking responsibility, but we are in a war with Hezbollah. Israel has announced that it’s moving the centre of gravity from Gaza to Lebanon. I want to remind that we have 60,000 Israelis displaced. For 11 months, Hezbollah has attacked us unprovoked. And at the start of the war against Israel, we evacuated many citizens. In Britain, in the Blitz, you evacuated children from London to the countryside. Here, we had to evacuate from the countryside whole families, not only children, for 11 months. It’s time we restore security for our citizens in the north, and we have to create the terms to bring them back safely to their homes.

Matt Frei: Everyone has been waiting for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah to be triggered. And there’ve been a number of actions in recent months that have led people to the fear that this was imminent. Is that what Israel is trying to do now, is to provoke a showdown with Hezbollah?

Amir Avivi: For the last 11 months, the strategy of Israel was to be on the offensive in Gaza and on the defensive on all other fronts. We are dealing with seven different fronts, all of them managed by Iran. Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, West Bank, where we have a lot of challenges. We reached the point where Israel can shift the centre of gravity to the north and really focus on bringing back our citizens to the north. And we cannot do that without pushing Hezbollah of south Lebanon and without really hitting Hezbollah hard. I believe war is imminent in the north. We’ll have to deal with Hezbollah before the winter, we don’t have a lot of time. So I think that the most probable scenario is a war.

Matt Frei: But the only way you’re going to push Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon is by invading southern Lebanon, which of course you’ve done before, and it ended disastrously. Is that what you’re saying? Is that what we’re about to go and see?

Amir Avivi: I think it’s inevitable, and it’s sad because I would have expected the international community to really pressure Iran and Hezbollah to adhere to [UN Security Council] Resolution 1701 that says that Hezbollah cannot be in south Lebanon. This could have been worked out diplomatically, but we see a US administration that is not willing to show leadership, not willing to put a credible military threat on the aggression of Iran and Hezbollah. And it gives Israel really no choice but probably to do a ground incursion and push Hezbollah out of south Lebanon.

Matt Frei: What you’re saying is quite extraordinary, and there’ll be quite a few jaws dropping around the Middle East listening to this, because in some ways you are speaking on behalf of the Israeli government. I also wonder whether by provoking Lebanon in this way, by talking about a ground invasion, you are bringing Iran into a war. And then we are talking about something far more serious than we’ve seen in the last year.

Amir Avivi: What do you mean provoking? Hezbollah has been shooting us for 11 months, every day. They are destroying our towns in the north…

Matt Frei: Are you prepared to risk a wider war, including Iran?

Amir Avivi: Unprovoked for 11 months. We are defending ourselves.

Matt Frei: But are you prepared to risk a wider war? Are you prepared to risk a wider war, including Iran in all this? Is that what you want?

Amir Avivi: Definitely. Definitely we are going to defend our citizens. And if anyone is going to attack Israel, they will pay heavily for doing so. We’re not going to live the reality where Hezbollah is shooting our towns, where we have people displaced, tens of thousands of people displaced from their homes. We’re going to restore security to the north. This week, the government has set a clear goal for saying we’re going to bring back safely all our citizens to the north.