What difference will long-range missiles make to Ukraine in the war with Russia?

There may be less than meets the eye to President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire US long-range missiles over the border into Russia.

ATACMS – Army Tactical Missile Systems – have a range of 300 kilometres. They can fire cluster munitions or a conventional warhead. The Ukrainians have long wanted to use them to hit the military bases from which Russia is firing missiles and swarms of drones that are devastating Ukrainian cities. But it appears that Biden has limited the cross-border use of ATACMS to Kursk, a small area of Russia which Ukraine invaded in August, and where it is now under pressure from both Russian and North Korean troops.

The conflict has been skewed Russia’s way from the start. Not only does Russia have a far larger army, the war is fought almost entirely on Ukrainian territory. If you live in St Petersburg or Moscow – from where very few soldiers are being conscripted – you can continue to live a peaceful life. But the life of everyone in Ukraine has been transformed by war.

Missiles and drone swarms regularly hit apartment blocks and infrastructure in cities like Kyiv, Odessa and even Lviv which are far from the front line. If the Biden administration is limiting the use of the ATACMS to Kursk, Ukraine still can’t hit the missile bases or other military targets from which the missiles and drones are launched.

More than that, the discussion over the ATACMS has been going on for so long that Russia has now moved many of its launch sites out of range, far deeper into Russia.

The Russians have long said that if Ukraine can fire US-supplied missiles into their territory, it would be an unacceptable escalation. President Putin regularly blusters about direct confrontation with Nato. Predictably, they said this decision would set off “a new spiral of tension”. But they have internationalised the war further by importing North Korean troops.

Russia is pushing on several fronts now, hoping to improve its position before President-elect Trump takes office in January. He has promised to “end the war in 24 hours”, and is likely to stop sending weapons to Ukraine, before starting negotiations with Russia from which Ukraine may be excluded.

In the waning days of his administration, President Biden, then, has made a decision with limited impact and which can easily be reversed.