Whatever brought it about, change has come to Burma

What makes a repressive government change its position? Sanctions? Diplomacy? Internal pressure?

If there was a simple answer, there wouldn’t be the head-scratching and agony we have over Syria now. Yet today, there is evidence of a government where something has worked. Witness Prime Minister David Cameron’s visit to Burma, his all-smiles meeting with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, and the promise to start lifting sanctions.

Burma’s military rulers, who were once known by the brutal acronym the SLORC, isolated their country. They renamed it Myanmar, as Burma was regarded as colonial. They waged war against ethnic minorities. They kept the charismatic Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest, locked up her supporters and withdrew from the capital Rangoon to a remote purpose-built government centre called Naypidaw. The paranoid, secretive military ruler General Than Shwe took more notice of fortune-tellers than international opinion. Under Suu’s influence, the EU and the US imposed sanctions  and the regime became even more isolated. Change seemed impossible.

But over the last decade, the generals saw that neighbouring countries were becoming prosperous, leaving  Burma behind. In 2007, when Cyclone Nargis struck, killing 130,000 people, General U Thein Sein, the leader of the military’s Disaster Preparedness Committee was reportedly horrified by the devastation and poverty he saw. He had apparently always been something of a reformist – exiles say that in 1988, when Suu’s supporters protested about the military stealing the election, his unit released activists they captured, saving their lives. He pushed for change and, along with 21 other military officers, left the army to run for elections as civilians in 2010.

U Thein Sein (pictured above, with David Cameron) won with more than 90 per cent of the vote and is now president. Some are calling him the Mikhail Gorbachev of Myanmar, bringing reform and openness. “He is a very decent, sensible man,” said a senior European diplomat who recently met him. “He believes he needs to solve political problems and see his country develop.”

In a new report, the International Crisis Group says the president is not alone. “There is a consensus among the key power holders in the country… that major political and economic changes are needed. There is a ‘pent-up desire for reform’ among a majority of the ruling elite,” it says.

One reason is that Burma’s rulers do not want to remain a satellite of China. In recent years, Chinese investors and carpet-baggers have hoovered up the country’s natural resources – timber, gemstones, oil – causing resentment. Thousands of people were forced to leave their homes to make way for a dam on the Irawaddy River which would provide electricity for Yunnan state, across the border in China. Less than 20 per cent of Burmese households have electricity. Unsurprisingly, people protested.

In 10 days’ time, EU foreign ministers will meet in Brussels and probably agree to lift all sanctions apart from the arms embargo. Aung San Suu Kyi, now a member of parliament after winning a by-election earlier this month, thinks it’s time. “It will strengthen the president’s hand,” said the European diplomat.

Years of western pressure did not bring change to Burma. Was it wariness of Chinese which did the trick? Or did the generals understand  after the “saffron revolution” in 2007, when monks took to the streets, that they could not keep power forever? Was it Cyclone Nargis? The endless patience of Aung San Suu Kyi? Or was it one man, U Thein Sein, who saw a moment to make history?

Probably it was a combination of all of these things. Today’s news from Myanmar brings hope that, when the historical circumstances come together, change can happen, however impossible it may have once seemed.

Follow Lindsey Hilsum on Twitter