Will Trump trigger Ukraine’s defeat?

Ukraine is facing a critical moment. On the frontline, Russia is advancing, at home the population is battered and cold, and on the world stage they face the prospect of Donald Trump becoming president of the United States.

“If I’m president, I will have that war [in Ukraine] settled in one day, 24 hours,” said Donald Trump in an interview in May last year. It was a boast he was to repeat at campaign rallies in South Carolina, Washington, New Jersey and Pennsylvania in the months that followed.

So now that he is poised to return to the White House, will Trump deliver on that promise? And what would that mean for Ukraine?

Russia has been throwing men at the enemy. Despite an estimated 1,500 Russian soldiers killed or injured per day during October – up from an estimated 1,000 per day in previous months – Russia has been slowly grinding forward.

Since the summer, Russia has gained more than one thousand square kilometres. It now occupies around one fifth of Ukrainian territory.

On the home front, Ukrainians face a tough winter with regular power cuts and frequent shelling by Russian forces. By one estimate, two thirds of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed. “No country can work without electricity,” the EU’s foreign affairs chief warned last month.

Currently visiting Ukraine, Josep Borrell, this morning found himself experiencing the everyday reality for the population there. “Starting my day in Kyiv in the shelter, as Russia unleashes another missile attack,” he wrote on X.

Kyiv may be far from the frontline, but it is not out of range of Russia’s drones and missiles. For months, diplomats have warned that this winter would be incredibly tough for Ukraine.

So when Donald Trump collects his keys to the White House on 20 January, Ukraine could be in its weakest position since the start of the war. That’s not the moment when it wants to start peace negotiations with President Putin. And yet the Ukrainian government knows that Donald Trump could force them to the table.

The US has provided Ukraine with about half of its military and financial support – billions of dollars Trump has signalled he is not prepared to keep up. Yesterday Trump’s son, Donald Junior, reposted an Instagram message suggesting President Zelenskyy is “38 days from losing your allowance”.

In Europe, most leaders continue with the mantra that it will support Ukraine for ‘as long as it takes’.

Meeting ahead of First World War commemorations in France this morning, President Macron, and British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, agreed that they will “support Ukraine unwaveringly and for as long as necessary to thwart Russia’s war of aggression”.

According to the Daily Telegraph, Macron and Starmer plan to redouble efforts to convince President Biden – in his last weeks of office –  to finally allow Ukraine to fire US long-range missiles into Russia, which Ukraine believes would help it better defend itself.

European sources say allowing Putin to claim a win would send a bad message to the rest of the world that aggression pays off.

But Europe knows that financially, militarily and psychologically it would be difficult, if not impossible, to maintain the war without American support.

Then there is the possibility that Trump does not follow through with his threats, despite promising in his victory speech last week that everything he said on the campaign would now become a reality.

In this scenario, Ukraine would fight on, presumably hoping for more, not less, US aid until it can drive the Russians back. Or at least be in a stronger position to convince Putin to do so.

Publicly at least, Ukraine has said it is not prepared to cede territory to Russia. Instead, Ukraine wants to cement itself to the West by joining the European Union and Nato.

“If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine,” warned Putin last week.

Zelenskyy told European leaders that he had had a “good, productive conversation” with Trump shortly after his election win.

Claims by the Washington Post that Trump had spoken to Putin have been rubbished by the Kremlin today.