It is the closest thing America has to a national primary: 10 states, 437 delegates up for grabs. But with the Republicans still so divided, it is unlikely to give anyone a knockout win.
As Super Tuesdays go, it’s not that big and it’s certainly not that clever. Four candidates, 10 states, just over 400 delegates, with not even Mitt Romney hoping for an outright win. The airwaves in key states like Ohio have been deluged with a constant stream of ever more negative ads. They call it “winning ugly”, it’s costing a fortune, and it’s no wonder the GOP bigwigs are desperate to get this primary contest locked down.
If Super Tuesday is unlikely to be decisive, there’s still a huge amount at stake for everyone left in the race. Romney won’t win them all, but he’ll be hoping to win enough to confirm he is, after all, the inevitable nominee. Rick Santorum, who’s seen the little momentum he did have slipping from his grasp, needs to win Ohio and Tennessee at the very least, to stay in the race. Newt Gingrich has ploughed everything into winning his home state of Georgia, but even that won’t give him much cause to continue his run. As for Ron Paul, he might do well in some of the more maverick states, but he’s already conceded: “Do I think the chances are slim? Yes I do.”
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In the final hours before any actual voting takes place, the last batch of polls offered almost everyone a straw to clutch at. The 10 primaries are, after all, taking place in a pretty broad spread of states, with very different demographic profiles. Romney is tipped to win his home state of Massachussetts, which will surprise no-one, along with neighbouring Vermont. He’ll also take Virginia, if only because Santorum and Gingrich failed to make it onto the ballot. But his poor ratings among evangelicals, for instance – just 7 per cent of that group approve of him in one state – have thrown him a pretty impossible task in the south.
Perhaps this is why all the attention has been drawn towards Ohio: that bellwether state which obsesses political junkies throughout every election cycle. As Ohio goes, so goes the nation, as the saying has it: in the 2012 Republican race, it’s pitched as a make or break state – the focus of millions of dollars in campaign cash, and hundreds of hours in candidates’ time.
Mitt Romney has ploughed around a million dollars into advertising time, while his superPAC, Restore Our Future, has added another $2.5 million – vastly outspending any of his opponents. He’s not short on organisation, either; moving his top team from Florida into the Buckeye state. It’s all helped to chip away at Santorum’s 18 point lead, enough that two out of four surveys on eve-of-poll put him slighly ahead. But Ohio should be fertile ground for Santorum, who’s been consistently doing well among evangelicals, voters without a college education, and those living in rural areas.
We’re up against a sledgehammer here with the Romney campaign, but we just start getting tougher. Rick Santorum
Perhaps that’s why Santorum has been attempting a more populist turn, even pleading personal poverty, telling voters he’d blitzed away his savings to run for the nomination: “but our country is worth it.” Put that in your tax haven and spend it, Mitt Romney. Once again, he’s the valiant underdog, rooting for the regular guy: “We’re up against a sledgehammer here with the Romney campaign, but we just start getting tougher,” he told supporters.
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Meantime, the GOP establishment are desperate for closure, fearing that prolonging this race for another few months will seriously damage the party’s chances against Barack Obama in the fall. More big names have come out to endorse Romney, hoping to bestow some of that aura of credibility he needs. The deeply negative tone of the battle certainly isn’t helping. The LA Times quotes former McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt: “There is no optimistic vision. It’s all about stabbing the opponent.” And President Obama told donors at a New York fundraiser the other week they should just watch the recent Republican debates. “I’m thinking about just running those as advertisements.”
If Santorum does just well enough, this contest won’t be over for a while yet. As Senator Lindsey Graham put it, you can’t just ask Santorum to quit when he’s managed to keep going this far. And, there’s that old problem with Romney: he might be electable, but he sure ain’t likeable. “There’s a segment of our party that just doesn’t want to sign on the Romney dotted line.” Voters in some of the key Super Tuesday states might grudgingly be swinging Romney’s way, but another poll has some bad news for the would-be President. The Wall Street Journal survey gives him minus 11 per cent on the negative/positive scale, making him the least liked front runner for decades.
But still, as Romney will no doubt be repeating again after Tuesday’s votes are in: it’s the delegate count that matters, and a win, after all, is a win.
Felicity Spector writes about US politics for Channel 4 News