Jonathan Rugman blogs on today’s attempted suicide attack on the British ambassador in Yemen.
The British Ambassador to Yemen, Tim Torlot, has survived an attempt to kill him. A suicide bomber detonated himself besides Torlot’s armoured car this morning, as Torlot drove to work on the road leading up to the British Embassy in Sanaa. One Yemeni was injured and the suicide bomber was killed – no British officials were hurt.
The embassy is an obvious target. It is a modern building sitting on the top of a hill, surrounded by scrubland. There is one main road connecting it to downtown Sanaa, and the building briefly closed in January after intelligence suggested an attack was imminent. Though the constant presence of armed security guards on the embassy roof may have deterred attackers from a direct assault.
The evidence so far suggests Torlot’s car was a deliberate Al Qaeda target, and the attack may be a sign of Britain’s increased profile in Yemen in the last few months.
In January, London convened a meeting of senior officials, including the US secretary of State, to discuss Yemen’s future, in the wake of revelations that the Detroit plane bombing suspect, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, had been trained in Yemen.
The UK is taking the lead in a new grouping of countries called the “Friends of Yemen”, designed to encourage inward investment coupled with political reform; and the UK is providing training for Yemen’s counter-terrorism forces and coastguard.
It has been something of a mystery why Al Qaeda has not struck more often within Sanaa itself. Last year, another suicide bomber attacked a convoy of South Korean diplomats on the road from the airport. Aside from the potential loss of life, such attacks could ruin any hope of inward investment – investment which serves as a potentially powerful weapon against jihadist feeling.
Tim Torlot has played a leading role amongst western diplomats in persuading donor governments that Yemen’s problems are as much economic as they are to do with security. This is important, because if the Americans and British and others pour money into the Yemeni security apparatus without addressing the country’s poverty, nothing will have changed very much for the better.
After the meeting on Yemen in London in January, the Foreign Secretary David Miliband put it like this: “the assault on Yemen’s problems cannot begin and end with its security challenges and its counter-terrorism strategy. In tackling terrorism, it is vital to tackle its root causes. In Yemen’s case these are manifold, economic, social and political.”
Al Qaeda in Yemen is probably only a few hundred strong, but its numbers could increase if a counterterrorist strategy is not carefully calibrated to include economic assistance.
And the economic situation is worsening. Yemen is burning up its foreign reserves by propping up its enfeebled currency, the Riyal. Oil production is falling, and revenue with it. Child malnutrition and food insecurity are on the rise. A programme of support from the International Monetary Fund has led to reductions in subsidies for diesel oil and increases in sales tax seem sure to follow. Yemenis are frequently going on strike.
On the positive side, there has been a ceasefire with Houthi tribal rebels in the north, and a British-led focus on making Yemen’s foreign donors, especially the Saudis, give the money they have pledged. More donor meetings are scheduled for later this year.
The Detroit plane bomber put Yemen back on the map, for all the wrong reasons. Today’s attack again runs the risk of undermining the inward investment this country badly needs. If diplomats like Tim Torlot are busy worrying about their own safety, what hope do they have of opening the country up to visitors with deep pockets and jobs?