Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks

5 November 2018

Monday 5th November, 8pm, Channel 4

Channel 4 can reveal the early findings from the largest independent survey undertaken since the 2016 Referendum on public sentiment regarding Brexit.

The headline findings will be revealed on Channel 4 on Monday 5th November at 8pm,

Confirmed politicians for the debate include:

• David Gauke MP, Justice Secretary
• Barry Gardiner, Shadow Trade Secretary
• Caroline Lucas, The People’s Vote
• Nigel Farage, Leave Means Leave

With the nation divided over Brexit, would a referendum on the terms of the UK's deal provide unity?

For Channel 4’s live programme on Monday night “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks” the polling company Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK from October 20th - November 2nd.   It’s by far the biggest independent survey of opinion on Brexit.

Among the questions, we asked about support for and opposition to a fresh referendum on the terms of the UK’s Brexit deal.  Previous polling has shown that the idea enjoys more support than opposition.

• But this new research shows clearly that people’s responses to questions about whether or not there should be a new referendum depend on the phrasing of the question and in particular the choices voters might face on a ballot paper.

• Overall, 55% of those interviewed said they would support at least one but not all versions of a referendum, a further 16% would support any type of referendum on a deal, and 15% opposed all of the referendum options. 14% said they did not know, no matter the choice offered.

• To look at this more closely Survation asked about three potential referendum choices on the terms of the deal – people were asked whether they’d support or oppose a referendum where the options on the ballot paper asked them to choose between:

1) Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU

2) Accepting the deal or leaving the EU without a deal

3) Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a different deal

 

• Here are the results:

Table 1 ALL RESPONDENTS   If the UK and the EU agree a deal on the terms of Brexit, would you support or oppose holding a referendum in which voters were asked to choose between:	I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Don’t know
Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU	43%	37%	20%
Accepting the deal or Leaving the EU without a deal	38%	39%	23%
Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal	39%	37%	24%

 

• A “deal or remain” referendum had marginally the most overall support.   But among 2016 Leave voters it was opposed by 63%, and supported by only 20%. As a comparison - this referendum option was supported by 69% of 2016 Remain voters and opposed by only 17%.

• No referendum option was supported by a majority.   How people voted in the 2016 EU referendum choice was a key factor influencing support or opposition (see table 2).

Breakdown by 2016 vote choice

Table 2   If the UK and the EU agree a deal on the terms of Brexit, would you support or oppose holding a referendum in which voters were asked to choose between:	All respondents   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	All respondents   I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Don’t know	Voted leave in 2016   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Voted leave in 2016   I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper -	Voted remain in 2016   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Voted remain in 2016     I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper
Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU	43%	37%	20%	20%	63%	69%	17%
Accepting the deal or Leaving the EU without a deal	38%	39%	23%	45%	37%	35%	47%
Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal	39%	37%	24%	31%	50%	49%	31%

NOTES TO EDITORS

Channel 4 for Monday’s live broadcast “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks” airs Monday November 5th at 8pm.

The analysis of questions put to the nation could  examine topics such as:

• If and how opinions may have changed since the 2016 EU Referendum
• Attitudes to the deal the government is aiming to achieve from the EU
• Views on political leaders
• What type of referendum on the government’s deal might be supported
• What the public feel will be the effect of Brexit on the economy, their own finances, and the NHS
• What the public’s “red lines” are for a deal and what might the public accept to secure an agreement
• Attitudes to immigration in general and specifically to freedom of movement between the UK and EU
• How close a relationship the public want the UK should have with the EU after Brexit
• Attitudes to Scotland and Northern Ireland and the constitutional future of a post-Brexit Britain

Have opinions changed since the referendum?

A key feature of the programme will be a special analysis by Survation and Dr. Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway, University of London. Using a tool called multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) the data collected across every constituency in the UK will allow the programme to show how the state of leave /remain opinion in every local authority has changed or not in comparison to the actual local authority level reported results from the 2016 referendum.

Modelled results for opinion in every local authority and region will also be available for:

The Northern Ireland border

Attitudes to freedom of movement

The ability for the UK to make trade deals outside the EU after Brexit

Whether the UK should continue to follow EU regulations on goods after Brexit

Current support for the type of deal the UK government is aiming to secure with the EU

<ENDS>

Notes for editors:

• #C4Brexit
• Photographs from the debate will be available from the Press Association.
• All broadcasters, television and radio, national and international, and websites are being granted permission to show clips from the programme while it is still on air. (max duration 2 minutes)
• An onscreen credit should be given for each programme, reading:
  • Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks, Channel 4

Data Tables:  https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Ref-on-the-deal-Tables.xlsx

Contact at Survation: damian.lyonslowe@survation.com