C4 survey: UK would vote to remain in EU by majority of 54% to 46%

5 November 2018

BREXIT: WHAT THE NATION REALLY THINKS - Monday 5th November, 8pm, Channel 4

 

Channel 4 can reveal the findings from the largest independent survey of its kind undertaken since the 2016 Referendum on public sentiment regarding Brexit.

Key findings found below, with full statistics and charts available here:

 

MRP Estimates: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/LA-predictions-from-MRP.xlsx

Data Tables:  https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Final-Tables-Renegade.xlsx

 

For Channel 4’s live programme on Monday night “Brexit: What The Nation Really Thinks” the polling company Survation interviewed 20,000 people online across every constituency in the UK from October 20th - November 2nd. The biggest independent survey of its kind on Brexit.

 

Data from the survey was used to drive a powerful Multi-level and post-stratification model to predict the result of an in/our referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union. This MRP technique has previously been used to successfully predict the outcome of the 2017 General Election and the 2016 EU Referendum. From the predictions from this model, we can see how public opinion has shifted across the UK since the 2016 EU referendum.

 

Using this technique, we now estimate that the UK would vote to remain in the EU by a majority of 54% to 46% and that 105 local authorities in the UK that saw a majority of voters vote leave in 2016 would now vote Remain. This includes Birmingham, from where Channel 4’s show is broadcasting live, which voted 50.4% in favour of leave in 2016 but which is now predicted to vote 41.8% leave.

 

Overall, this MRP analysis has found that, since the 2016 EU referendum, support for leaving the EU has fallen most dramatically in the local authorities that saw the highest leave vote shares in 2016.

 

MRP estimates have also shown that when modelling support or opposition to the deal using this MRP technique (so removing people who say they would not vote or don't know how they would vote) a small majority of people say they would reject the current deal (by 57% to 43%).

 

The large sample size in the survey also allows us to gather estimates of public opinion on a range of issues related to Brexit from a wide range of people across the UK. The survey collected opinion from across the UK on the Brexit deal currently being negotiated by the UK government and the EU. Responses to these questions have shown that over a third of respondents don’t know how they would if they were asked to accept or reject the UK government’s Brexit deal:

 

Q7. From what you have seen or heard so far, if there was a vote tomorrow on the type of Brexit deal that the UK Government is aiming to achieve from the EU, how would you be likely to vote?

From what you have seen or heard so far, if there was a vote tomorrow on the type of Brexit deal that the UK Government is aiming to achieve from the EU, how would you be likely to vote?	All respondents
Accept the deal:	26%
Reject the deal:	33%
I would not vote:	7%
Don’t know:	34%

 

They also show that a majority of UKIP voters would vote to reject the deal, but opinion is much more divided amongst supporters of other parties:

By 2016 referendum vote and 2017 election vote

From what you have seen or heard so far, if there was a vote tomorrow on the type of Brexit deal that the UK Government is aiming to achieve from the EU, how would you be likely to vote?	All respondents	Leave 2016	Remain 2016	CON	LAB	LD	UKIP
Accept the deal:	26%	30%	25%	41%	22%	29%	19%
Reject the deal:	33%	33%	38%	30%	40%	37%	56%
I would not vote:	7%	4%	4%	3%	5%	5%	3%
Don’t know:	34%	33%	34%	27%	32%	30%	22%

 

That the proportion of people who thought the UK should remain in the UK if it is unable to agree on a deal with the EU is almost identical to the proportion who thought the UK should leave with no deal in such a scenario:

Q8. Imagine that UK and the EU are unable to reach a deal on the terms of Brexit by the date that the UK is due to leave the EU on 29th March next year.  What do you think should happen? (ALL)

The UK should remain in the EU	35%
The UK should leave the EU on March 29th without a deal	36%
The UK should delay leaving the EU to allow for more time to reach a deal	19%
Don’t know	10%

 

But these responses are highly correlated with people’s support for leaving or remaining in the EU; a majority of people who voted Leave in 2016 said we should leave without a deal (67%) and a majority of people who voted Remain in 2016 said we should stay without a deal (24%).

Q8.  By 2016 referendum vote and 2017 election vote                                                          

Imagine that UK and the EU are unable to reach a deal on the terms of Brexit by the date that the UK is due to leave the EU on 29th March next year.  What do you think should happen?	Leave	Remain	CON	LAB	LD	SNP
The UK should remain in the EU	8%	64%	17%	51%	58%	56%
The UK should leave the EU on March 29th without a deal	67%	11%	58%	22%	18%	23%
The UK should delay leaving the EU to allow for more time to reach a deal	18%	20%	20%	20%	18%	15%
Don’t know	8%	5%	5%	7%	5%	7%

 

While previous polling has shown that a referendum on the terms of the government’s Brexit deal is conceptually popular, there was not majority support for any of the various potential ballot paper questions put. A referendum asking people between accepting the deal and remaining in the EU was the most popular, but when including all respondents (including those who said they don’t know whether they would support such a referendum) only a minority of respondents supported this option.

 

Q12-14. If the UK and the EU agree a deal on the terms of Brexit, would you support or oppose holding a referendum in which voters were asked to choose between:

 

	I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Don’t know
Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU	43%	37%	20%
Accepting the deal or Leaving the EU without a deal	38%	39%	23%
Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal	39%	37%	24%

 

In fact, only 16% of respondents said they’d support all of the three referendums on the questions outlined. A further 55% said they’d support at least one but not all of the referendums, with support for the individual options highly contingent on individuals’ support of or opposition to Brexit.

Analysis of Q12-14	Total	Female	Male
Weighted total	20090	10296	9790
Would support any referendum on the deal, no matter the choices offered	15.62%	16.43%	14.76%
Would oppose any referendum on the deal, no matter the choices offered	15.23%	11.07%	19.6%
Support for a referendum on the deal depends on the choices offered (varied responses)	55.29%	53.41%	57.27%
Don’t know, no matter the choices offered	13.86%	19.08%	8.38%

 

Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU by 2017 party vote and 2016 EU referendum vote

 A large majority of 2017 Remain voters would support a referendum choosing between the deal and staying in the EU. An almost big a majority of 2016 Leave voters would oppose such a referendum:

	CON	LAB	LD	SNP	Leave	Remain
I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	28%	60%	65%	62%	20%	69%
I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	60%	24%	24%	22%	63%	17%
Don’t know	12%	16%	12%	15%	17%	13%

 

Accepting the deal or leaving the EU without a deal by 2017 party vote and 2016 EU referendum vote

 A large minority of 2017 Leave voters would support a referendum choosing between the deal and leaving the EU with no deal. A similar proportion of 2016 Remain voters would oppose such a referendum:

	CON	LAB	LD	SNP	Leave	Remain
I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	42%	39%	33%	38%	45%	35%
I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	44%	40%	51%	41%	37%	47%
Don’t know	14%	21%	16%	21%	18%	18%

 

Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal by 2017 party vote and 2016 EU referendum vote

Half of Leave and half of Remain voters would oppose a referendum asking people to choose between the Brexit deal and the UK re-opening negotiations with the EU.

	CON	LAB	LD	SNP	Leave	Remain
I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	32%	50%	45%	46%	31%	49%
I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	52%	29%	36%	33%	50%	31%
Don’t know	16%	22%	19%	21%	19%	20%

 

Q16-19. Do you think Brexit will be good, bad or make no difference to each of the following?

More people think Brexit will bad than think Brexit will be good for the UK economy, the NHS and their own household finances. Only a small minority of respondents thought that Brexit would be good for their household finances, but this figure falls to 10% in Northern Ireland and 11% in Scotland. Although 4/10 people think Brexit will be good for levels of immigration to the UK, 28% think it will make no difference.

	Good	Bad	No difference	Don’t know
The UK economy	31%	44%	14%	12%
The NHS	30%	36%	23%	11%
Levels of immigration to the UK	40%	21%	28%	11%
Your household finances	16%	38%	33%	13%

  

Q25. How close a relationship with the EU would you like the UK to have with the EU after Brexit?

Over two thirds of respondents (67%) thought that the UK should continue to have a close relationship with the EU after Brexit. This was almost three times as many as thought the UK and the EU should not have a close relationship

Very close	25%
Fairly close	42%
Not very close	17%
Not at all close	6%
Don’t know	9%

 

By 2016 referendum vote and 2017 election vote

Support for a close relationship is particularly strong amongst 2016 Remain voters as well as 2017 Labour, Lib Dem and SNP voters:

	Leave	Remain	CON	LAB	LD	SNP
Very close	9%	46%	16%	36%	46%	41%
Fairly close	47%	40%	51%	39%	39%	36%
Not very close	27%	7%	22%	13%	10%	11%
Not at all close	10%	2%	7%	4%	3%	5%
Don’t know	7%	5%	4%	7%	3%	7%

 

 Q26. If Brexit leads to Northern Ireland leaving the United Kingdom and joining the Republic of Ireland, would you be:

Base: Random 50% of respondents

Similar proportions of respondents say they are concerned (44%) and that they are not concerned (42%) about the possibility of Northern Ireland leaving the UK after Brexit

Very concerned	20%
Quite concerned	24%
Not very concerned	24%
Not at all concerned	18%
Don’t know	13%

 

By 2016 referendum vote and 2017 election vote

	Leave	Remain	CON	LAB	LD	SNP
Very concerned	17%	34%	23%	29%	38%	8%
Quite concerned	17%	28%	20%	28%	27%	11%
Not very concerned	25%	16%	23%	19%	17%	18%
Not at all concerned	36%	16%	31%	17%	13%	58%
Don’t know	5%	5%	3%	7%	4%	5%

 

 

Q27. If Brexit leads to Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming and independent country, would you be:

Base: Random 50% of respondents

 Equal proportions of respondents (46%) say they are concerned and that they are not concerned about the possibility of Scotland leaving the UK after Brexit

Very concerned	23%
Quite concerned	23%
Not very concerned	22%
Not at all concerned	24%
Don’t know	8%

 

By 2016 referendum vote and 2017 election vote

	2016 Leave	2017 Remain	2017 CON	2017 LAB	2017 LD	2017 SNP
Very concerned	17%	34%	23%	29%	38%	8%
Quite concerned	17%	28%	20%	28%	27%	11%
Not very concerned	25%	16%	23%	19%	17%	18%
Not at all concerned	36%	16%	31%	17%	13%	58%
Don’t know	5%	5%	3%	7%	4%	5%

 

Among the questions, we asked about support for and opposition to a fresh referendum on the terms of the UK’s Brexit deal.  Previous polling has shown that the idea enjoys more support than opposition.

 

• But this new research shows clearly that people’s responses to questions about whether or not there should be a new referendum depend on the phrasing of the question and in particular the choices voters might face on a ballot paper.

 

• Overall, 55% of those interviewed said they would support at least one but not all versions of a referendum, a further 16% would support any type of referendum on a deal, and 15% opposed all of the referendum options. 14% said they did not know, no matter the choice offered.

 

• To look at this more closely Survation asked about three potential referendum choices on the terms of the deal – people were asked whether they’d support or oppose a referendum where the options on the ballot paper asked them to choose between:

 

1) Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU

2) Accepting the deal or leaving the EU without a deal

3) Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a different deal

 

• Here are the results:

 

Table 1 ALL RESPONDENTS   If the UK and the EU agree a deal on the terms of Brexit, would you support or oppose holding a referendum in which voters were asked to choose between:	I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Don’t know
Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU	43%	37%	20%
Accepting the deal or Leaving the EU without a deal	38%	39%	23%
Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal	39%	37%	24%

 

• A “deal or remain” referendum had marginally the most overall support.   But among 2016 Leave voters it was opposed by 63%, and supported by only 20%. As a comparison - this referendum option was supported by 69% of 2016 Remain voters and opposed by only 17%.

 

• No referendum option was supported by a majority.   How people voted in the 2016 EU referendum choice was a key factor influencing support or opposition (see table 2).

 

Breakdown by 2016 vote choice

Table 2   If the UK and the EU agree a deal on the terms of Brexit, would you support or oppose holding a referendum in which voters were asked to choose between:	All respondents   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	All respondents   I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Don’t know	Voted leave in 2016   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Voted leave in 2016   I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper -	Voted remain in 2016   I would support a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper	Voted remain in 2016     I would oppose a referendum with this choice on the ballot paper
Accepting the deal or Remaining in the EU	43%	37%	20%	20%	63%	69%	17%
Accepting the deal or Leaving the EU without a deal	38%	39%	23%	45%	37%	35%	47%
Accepting the deal or Re-opening the negotiations with a view to getting a better deal	39%	37%	24%	31%	50%	49%	31%

 

 

 Notes for editors:

• #C4Brexit
• Photographs from the debate will be available from the Press Association.
• All broadcasters, television and radio, national and international, and websites are being granted permission to show clips from the programme while it is still on air. (max duration 2 minutes)
• An onscreen credit should be given for each programme, reading:
  • Brexit: What the Nation Really Thinks, Channel 4

Data Tables: https://www.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Ref-on-the-deal-Tables.xlsx(opens in a new window)

Contact at Survation: damian.lyonslowe@survation.com